We are now 46 hours into the new reality of the new iPhone 3G and how it will change the competitive landscape.  I have conversed with many of my Apple-evangelist friends who always have the latest on the announcement - including rumors - and who are irritatingly sure that Apple has a genial master plan is doing absolutely nothing wrong implementing it.  Well, this is what all religions tend to do, right?   I agree that the new phone is going to sell beyond the overall 10 million worldwide sales target.  I agree with the evangelists that the enhanced monthly data ARPU and the ($200+?) activation kickback the carrier pays Apple are going to make shareholders in all parties happy.  I agree that the app store has a lot of potential as a revenue generator.  But there is one concern the industry (=carriers) have fought for years now: converting pre-paid users into post-paid users. In the new Apple model there will be less and less technical possibility (according to Apple) and economic incentive to unlock the phones, therefore the model is purely based on a walled garden built around post-paid carrier subscribers.  As an example, Apple has announced that all Latin American countries except Venezuela will be part of the phase 2 launch of the iPhone 3G (totaling 70 countries).  But according to my consulting partner and LatAm expert Carl Gunell only 19% of customers in that region are post-paid.  (Combine this with the fact that gifting a phone will be more difficult if it implies having a credit check done on the gift receiver - a large portion of the expensive phones in developing countries are given as gifts - and you will see how the adoption may be curbed.)  So Apple needs to push the envelope of expanding the postpaid market and here lies its biggest opportunity, nicely aligned with the strategic goal of the carrier partner. Apple, like any electronics retailer uses a number of financing instruments to extend credit to consumers and businesses alike.  Imagine if Apple would suddenly turn around and present to the carriers a plan to share the credit risk among those prospective subscribers who are within the best 25% of carrier’s disqualified credit applicants and at the same time among the better half of Apple’s own customers in terms of purchase history, loyalty and credit worthiness.  Apple could bring those customers to the table and enable them to pass the credit check.  The ticket to the consumer would be to remain in good standing with their Apple financing plan or face a penalty.Other handset vendors have neither the retail presence nor the product portfolio (or both) to compete in this manner. My conclusion is that this is an inevitable move for Apple and that they have already taken a position towards this direction by dropping the data revenue share and exclusivity ambitions for a more constructive goal of expanding post-paid user base for carriers.