I own three phones on my AT&T family plan: Nokia N95 (voice, camera, video capture), Blackberry 8830 (email) and a iPhone (web, product demos). I think more people should do the same – this is a killer combination and really shows that you cannot have one single device to satisfy all your needs.iPhone has revolutionized the US market in one aspect: web browsing is for the first time easy and convenient from a mobile phone. For product demos alone it has paid itself back at one trade show alone. Amazing! However, do all people have needs like I do? Do consumers really need all this functionality? Browsing? Certainly yes. Gaming? No. Camera? It starts to be a default requirement. It is all about which one of your needs leads your selection of a new phone. Apple will suffer for a while for the lack of a 3G network. Not much because the EDGE experience in my view is largely sufficient – but it does suffer. So they sold 3.5 million phones during 2H in 2007. Will they sell 10 million in 2008? I would venture to say that that should be easy. All you need to do is to have a few new countries to come onboard and the launch of a new generation with significant upgrade incentive (like 3G and a better camera) to kick in. How big an impact will the rumored 2008 announcements for a mid-range and ‘business’ iPhone have already this year? The enterprise offering with push email and security enhancements is an important add-on to growth for the SME market. Here’s what a friend of mine, an analyst for a major handset vendor says:

Volume impact from business buying will be about 2 million calendar 08. SME mostly, about 12 million total units C08. No effect on RIM until 09. Long term, platform will increase network effects for iphone. I anticipate steady growth, overtaking RIM and windows mobile in 09. Parity in volume with Symbian by 2011. After that, hard to tell as Android will start ramp. There is a chance that iphone will take 10% global share by 2011 (all phones).

Interesting. But there is also the counter-argument: first of all, early adopters and Mac-fanatics bought all those first four million phones. Fanatics bought the first million Palm devices ten years ago and it was the coolest innovation on the planet. Apple is able to pull people in to spend disproportionate amounts of money into enhancing their lifestyle with their offering. Starbucks does the same (both brands were heavily consulted by Scott Bradbury): coffee drinkers are able to generate $100+ monthly ARPUs for a coffee shop (one coffee per days is enough) – amazing! How will that brand affinity carry old iPhone users to upgrade phones and take up accessories and services? How will Apple develop new ‘brand converts’ to consume more? Will those converts enter the brand relationship through the iPhone purchase or through an iPod, iTunes, MacBook or some other ‘first love’? I think those are all interesting questions.Competitive pressures are mounting. Nokia will not sit still and neither will RIM or Motorola die voluntarily (I consider both of those companies to be under a severe threat). It is probably very easy for Apple to reach 10 million phones in 2008 – the much more interesting question is what the market will be like in 2010 when the storm in the water glass will have died down and we know the real traction of the product and the real change in usage patterns it generates.