Back in the blogging game again… I don’t understand how some people can do this as if it were their main occupation… I simply did not have the time in 2004.So - there is a little bubble developing out there again, are we all gonna get rich (again)? Everybody and their mother are launching mobile video services. The press are happily writing about mobile devices replacing TV. MobiTV has already cornered the market and we others can all go home. Well, maybe we will see something starting to happen FOR REAL in 2007 when DVB/H and MediaFlo start changing the economics… and yes, it will probably be huge.
On the professional front I completed successfully my project to build up a mobile content team for Macromedia. Going forward the company will be focusing its resources on developing the next version of FlashLite technology as well as supporting the new handset licensees which start signing up at an increasing pace (Samsung was the latest announcement on January 19). To understand a Silicon Valley company going mobile is not always easy and I am happy to guide the readers to the right source over at MACR - just drop me a note.
MEOW newsletter is just my way to keep in touch with industry insiders. There is a lot I will have to leave out and I encourage all of my readers to drop me a note and I will see how I can help you. I look forward to working with my readers in a more personal relationship over the course of 2005 - your feedback is welcome!
Best regards,
- Tapio Anttila
- www.anttila.net
TREND NEWS - MY 2005 PREDICTIONS
Lots of development and excitement - but still boring experiences. This year will fail to bring to market anything that would cause me to run to the store and get a new phone. A lot of exciting things are in the pipeline and industry people will be busy but the new stuff that is selling will still be *yawn* boring early adopter stuff: ‘amazing video’ at 21 kbps and other over-promises from the industry players trying to beat the VCs to give them more money. Having said that, 2007 will be a whole different story.
The last year of ‘peace’ between operators and the content industry. Mobile operators have been allowed to build their walled gardens in the comfortable expectation that they would become the future media giants. This has grown to significant dimensions on the US market where Verizon in particular has tried to legitimize this role. Media companies are seeing the writing on the wall: profitable alternative distribution channels for mobile content in Asia and Europe are sneaking into the US market. Premium SMS will finally take off this year in the US. There is only so much operators can do to stifle growth and competition. At some point the floodgates will open and the US market will be like any other market. See the rather provocative article by John Strand on the matter: http://www.160characters.org/news.php?action=view&nid=1422
US market will lag even more in December 2005. Price competition in voice and SMS is driving operators in competitive GSM markets to innovate on data services - we are approaching the ultimate moment of truth for the operators in those markets: the new revenue has to come from somewhere. On the oligopolistic US market the years 2005 and 2006 will be spent in sorting out the completion of the carrier mega-mergers. Customers are locked into their 2-year contracts and they lack incentives to visit an operator store to find out about new services. It is a miracle that the US market has gotten where it is today despite the lack of innovation in distribution!
Good news - in December 2005 we’ll all be very busy. The mobile entertainment industry is clearly shifting in a larger gear: consolidations, IPO activity, start-ups funded,… The Japanese are cherry-picking cheap US companies as if it were the Rockefeller Plaza times here again (Vindigo, Mobliss). And perhaps the most interesting development of all is the surge is MVNO-related joint venturing: The recent announcement of SK Telecom and Earthlink to form a venture to offer multimedia services through an MVNO (supposedly over Sprint PCS EVDO) is an interesting one as it involves Sky Dayton finally coming out of Boingo where he was cooking some rather utopian WiFi services which suddenly make much more sense when integrated in a larger context of multiple network infrastructures. So this all will create jobs for everyone - not the least for headhunters.
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Disclaimer: Opinions presented herein are those of the undersigned and do not represent the position or message of any company I might be affiliated with.
