- IN THIS ISSUE:
- * Killing Me Softly… Who’s the Killer Individual?
- * Are the Right People Riding on Our Waves?
- - ‘cut the cord’
- - ‘Internet in your pocket’ and
- - ’situational-centric - user in control’
I want to wish a Prosperous Year 2001 to all my readers! We at Ericsson seem to have been speeding up our time to market in mobile Internet solutions significantly during the last two months so there is a good chance our year will be like none of the previous ones. Below in the “Internal Discoveries” section I will list a few items worth checking out.
I promised to tell you about health care in a New York Hospital… Having been diagnosed with mild pneumonia in November, my doctor suggested I spend a few days in a hospital to get faster results from the antibiotic treatment. Curious to see how an American hospital looks like, I accepted the invitation. It was an eye-opening experience. “Use of mobile phones prohibited in the building.” You sign in and the process takes 45 minutes with all the questions, payments and other administrative routines. Then you settle down in your room and the doctor-in-duty comes with a paper pad, a pen and some 50 questions. Twenty minutes later, the nurse-in-charge comes in with a paper pad, a pen and pretty much the same 50 questions. They both promise antibiotics by the end of the day. “We’ve run out of that brand, someone is going to get them in a pharmacy.” At 10 pm the nurse-in-charge comes in: “Antibiotics? According to my files you will get them 9am tomorrow morning.” The next day my own doctor comes in for a visit. “You did not get your antibiotics? Why didn’t you call me?” “I cannot use my mobile phone here…” “Who says so? I’ve always used mine.” Now to the exercise: How would a mobile solution improve…? I am glad that Ericsson is finally investing in mobile health care solutions… http://www.ericsson.com/press/20010115-0027.html
I was asking my readers about the differentiation between 2.5G and 3G applications. I got plenty of replies but actually few answers. More on that below. Now in January DIA has had time to complete a lot of white papers. Does anyone find the right one that state the DIA position on this in the DIA Library http://dia.ericsson.se/diastory/library.htm?
The deal of the month so far? How about the AOL announcement to commit itself to WAP and license its browser to Nokia? Read the brilliant deal analysis by Unstrung.com. http://www.unstrung.com/server/display.php3?id=413&cat_id=3
Best regards
Tapio Anttila
KILLING ME SOFTLY… WHO’S THE KILLER INDIVIDUAL?
The (somewhat irritating) Ericsson consensus seems to be that operators invest in 3G mainly for capacity reasons and that voice remains the dominant application. Fine, but that is of course not enough. Ovum says (http://khan.ericsson.se/sources/ovum/mobile_ovum/content/forecast/vdata.htm) that in 2004 data is still only 10% of voice revenues. OK, ok. But be careful here: voice prices will decline perhaps faster than we anticipate (operator consolidation works against this but high license prices for it). Moreover, voice services are limited by the human constraint of us having only one mouth and two ears - therefore we can effectively have a maximum of 1.5 full-duplex simultaneous voice sessions open if adhering to polite manners but an infinite number of data sessions. Those data sessions can also act in the background and generate operator revenue.
Ovum also say that bringing 3G services to the market will require a mass market strategy from the outset (a niche strategy is not a fast-enough path into revenues). Therefore we need seamless backwards compatibility into 2G and 2.5G services. On the wired Internet, ‘backwards compatibility’ to millions of ftp-sites and web pages helped the Internet achieve what video conferencing never did.
But we also need differentiators in order to make people switch, right?
I believe that one of the keys is to create a platform (part of the service network) that helps the operator to decide which users it tries to migrate to 3G - and why, when and at what price. You can make people switch by giving them a free phone or you can make them switch by offering the right people a hard-to-resist service bundle. Which one is cheaper for a service provider? Can the service provider identify individual customers or clusters of customers with the right profitability, anti-churn, service adoption and viral/spiral/tribal marketing capabilities to target for a ‘3G lift’?
A few calls to Stockholm revealed that we have not thought so much of this from a solution perspective. Please correct me if I have missed something. I think we would need the Ericsson Service Introduction Platform as a part of the service network concept.
ARE THE RIGHT PEOPLE RIDING ON OUR WAVES?
I have grown to be somewhat critical at one of the core marketing slides DIA is using - the evolution of the mobile Internet through three waves (I am sure you all have seen that):
The problem is that ‘Internet in your pocket’ argument gives a powerful weapon for anti-WAP companies such as Palm to argue for the value in adhering to HTML-based solutions. They argue that you need access to the entire Internet in order for the market to take off. That is very true but there is also a thing called time dimension in this equation. In my opinion access to the entire Internet comes from Ericsson’s perspective as the fourth wave. The second wave should highlight the ‘walled garden opportunity’ as a mutually beneficial introductory phase for service providers and operators to ‘on the move explore Internet-like services without tears’.
Keep on presenting the waves as they are approved by Ericsson. But give some thought on who actually is riding on them and convey your thoughts to DIA Marketing.
NEW MOBILE VENTURE FUNDS, INCUBATORS,…
Qualcomm set up their own $500m fund a few months ago. Industry sources say the move is significant since the person managing the fund is the smarter one of the two sons of Dr Jacobs…
Alcatel and Runway, an Internet and software start up consultant, said they set up an incubator in Israel called Runway Telecom. Runway Telecom will focus on technology start ups in wireless infrastructure, optics, next generation networks, and new telecom services, and plans to incubate approximately six to eight companies over the next 12 to18 months.
General Atlantic Partners, which invests in IT, Internet, and Internet-enabled businesses, said that Klaus Esser, former chairman of the board of Mannesmann has joined the firm as a partner. Mr. Esser, who will be based in Germany, will focus his attention on telecommunications investment strategy and assume a leadership role for the fund’s European operations. http://www.gapartners.com
INTERNAL DISCOVERIES
DIA organized a number of Mobile Internet Symposia, presenting their strategy, services and products. The presentations are available on http://internetapplications.ericsson.se/Marketing/MI-Symposium/new_pre.htm.
An updated presentation of the IAPP product portfolio (with speaker notes) available below. For internal use. The file is 42MB so that those in China might want to consider starting the downloading when leaving the office on Friday ;-). http://internetapplications.ericsson.se/ins_marketing/doc/IAPP_portfolio_overview_Rev_D.ppt
The IAPP Product Marketing homepage leads you to a wealth of updated information on IAPP products. http://internetapplications.ericsson.se/Marketing/products.asp
The MVNO (Mobile Virtual Network Operator) homepage is now up and running on http://mvno.ericsson.se.
A great collection of IAPP competitor information is available in the Outlook public folder: \Company Information\ERA - Ericsson Radio Systems AB\KI (Kista)\ERA/C - Internet Applications\ERA/CB - Marketing and Sales. Please make your contribution.
QUICK TAKES
Remember Talking Drum, the teenage mobile lifestyle services company from San Francisco who presented at the Web Academy Seminar in September ‘99 in Stockholm? Well, now they have launched their field trials in Sacramento and Motorola has invested in the company. One of the co-founders, Vinnie Longobardo, founded MTV in Asia and Latin America. Note that their strategy is to be an MVNO on Sprint’s network. Brand building is done using tribal marketing. http://www.unstrung.com/server/display.php3?id=399&cat_id=2
PeopleStreet have launched a ‘business card ASP service’. What a great application for GPRS! Maybe something for the WISE Portal to look into? www.peoplestreet.com/index.jsp
StreetBeam has a new take on location-based services: beaming offers from outdoor advertising displays into mobile devices. Thanks for the link, Adam! http://www.streetbeam.com/htm/home/index.htm
Motorola came up with its version of chatboard - integrated in a youth phone with a clamshell design. I believe this will be more popular than an accessory. I guess the problem with chatboard was - on top of the lack of a business model - that teenagers don’t want a ‘writing aid’ to be too visible. It is like admitting that you still cannot ride a bike on two wheels… http://www.newsbytes.com/news/00/158306.html
A group of 10 former employees from Apple Computer, Microsoft Corp., Palm Inc. and USWeb/CKS have formed a new Bellevue company called FreeRein that will allow mobile workers to connect with corporate networks from wireless devices. You might also want to update yourself on two other companies in this space, @Hand (www.@hand.com/) and Brience (www.brience.com/) (Brience is apparently partnering with Ericsson Canada.). Interestingly, FreeRein is a company with the first ‘anti-ASP’ business model. http://www.freerein.com/
Portal Software has acquired Solution42, a German developer of wireless voice mediation, provisioning, and rating
technologies. Portal is preparing its roadmap towards 3G services. Ericsson should take notes since this is a Cisco-ecosystem company that soon will cut a deal with Openwave (Phone.com).
PhatNoise have developed an embedded Linux based MP3 music storage for cars as a replacement for a CD changer. Holds hundreds of hours of music and retails for $499. This is the first time I see someone propose something useful with MP3. I would buy this immediately had I not sold my car! http://www.zdnet.com/enterprise/stories/main/0,10228,2649345,00.html
Expanding the Bluetooth vision, how could Bluetooth-enabled devices help kids learn to read? Tumblebooks e-book format integrates traditional print reading and animation, music, narration, and interactivity for kids. It will be available for PC, TV and handheld devices. Nokia is entering the e-book market as we speak, who at Ericsson is looking into it? http://www.tumblebooks.com/indexwf.html
Kenwood is developing a line of W-CDMA smart phones based on the Symbian platform. The company said it will base its device on Intel’s XScale microacrhitecture. It said it will first release the phone in Japan in 2002 and will announce plans to release the device in other markets “in due course.”
BlueStreak and Ericsson are cooperating for a Bluetooth and WAP enabled point-of-sale terminal solution. http://www.bluestreak.com/
Traditional backbone players are moving into mobile Internet hosting and service provisioning business at a breakneck speed. UUnet has its strategic cooperation with Ericsson which has this dimension (provisioning WAP gateway services etc.) and now Cable & Wireless has announced a mobile Internet service bureau offering (do they work with Nokia on this?). http://www.allnetdevices.com/wireless/news/2000/11/08/cw_offers.html
Home-improvement advice of the month: Got a DSL connection? Now you can move your voice over it as well… http://www.tmcnet.com/enews/121800b.htm
Reebok International’s “Smart Train” shoe will not only measure how far and how fast the wearer is going, but how many calories he or she has burned, as well as displaying the day, date, and time. The company is also considering adding a heart monitor. There will be two versions of the shoe, which will retail for US$110 and US$250. The lower-end shoe will display information on an LCD screen in the tongue of the shoe, while the higher-end model will use wireless technology to transmit the information to a watch. The shoes are expected to hit the market in July 2001.
The multi-channel access platform and the new markup language MAXML from Curious Networks looks interesting. They are a member of the Ericsson MAI and their founders come mainly from Andersen Consulting. http://www.curiousnetworks.com/
VisionAIR, a designer and developer of wireless data applications for mobile workforces, said it has raised $24 million in its Series D round of funding led by GE Equity. http://www.visionair.com/frame.html
Look at this company! Graviton, a developer of wireless sensor networks that enable machines to communicate with each other, said it appointed Solomon D. Trujillo, as its CEO. Mr. Trujillo is the former chairman and chief executive of US West. Graviton is backed by Kleiner Perkins, Early Bird Ventures, Mitsui USA, Siemens, Sun Microsystems, OMRON and Qualcomm. http://www.graviton.com
Neopoint sold its myAladdin.com location-based information service to Leap Wireless. http://www.leapwireless.com/site/pr/releases/121800.html
Motorola has taken an undisclosed stake in Cacheon. Their technology is comparable to the fleet management capabilities of the Ericsson/Tivoli cooperation. Veriprise and XcelleNet also made an announcement in this area. http://www.cacheon.com/ http://www.veriprise.com/newsroom22.asp
Broadband wireless ‘hotspot’ connectivity, sometimes referred to as the raisin-pudding model, is threatening the value proposition of mobile 3G technologies particularly in the US. Etinium has a new study detailing what the various insurgents are doing. The answer to this threat might be that we need to have all these hotspots roam seamlessly with 3G in the upcoming 3.5G technology a few years down the road. http://www.etinium.net/summary.html
Celvibe has a MPEG-4 based mobile video optimization platform for realtime quality adjustment over the air interface. http://www.celvibe.com/index_0.htm
Motorola just added an open-source strategy to their developer efforts via a cooperation with CollabNet. See the analysis by Unstrung. Do we have plans to apply open source models on our developer program? http://www.unstrung.com/server/display.php3?id=409&cat_id=2, http://www.collab.net/
See also: www.lowermybills.com,
(To view the embedded hyperlinks, view this section online at http://webacademy.ericsson.se.)
- SELECTED THOUGHTFUL BROWSING
- SNS Newsletter by Mark Anderson - http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/trends/6112.asp
- FierceWireless Weekly Newsletter - http://www.fiercewireless.com/
- —–
- NAM 3G Homepage - http://www.exu.ericsson.se/EUS/R/NAM3G/home/html/index.shtml
- DIA Homepage - http://dia.ericsson.se/
- IAPP Homepage - http://internetapplications.ericsson.se/
- Internal MVNO homepage - http://mvno.ericsson.se
You might want to check out the website of Ericsson Foresight, the futures research entity of Ericsson Corporate. They have some recent seminar presentations worth reading on your leisure. http://inside.ericsson.se/foresight/
RealCommunities is developing a website enabling mentoring relationships over the Internet. This form of community-building is relying of trust and individual experience. I believe this provides for sustainable business models to emerge (also based on the fairly successful evolution of www.about.com). See particularly their 12 Principles of Civilization (trademarked!): http://www.realcommunities.com/products/12principles.htm
Tired of playing solitaire on your PC? Wanna test the charm of your friend on a common vote on the Internet? Just send his/her picture to http://www.amihotornot.com/. He/she will most certainly be delighted…
Does i-mode have a chance in Europe? The answer is a clear no, according to a Forrester analyst. http://www.mformobile.com/default.asp?Redirect=main.asp?pk=9988&apollid=x
(go to http://webacademy.ericsson.se for links to stories)
IOW EVENTS CALENDAR
Jan 25: Wireless Advertising Association General Meeting in San Francisco. http://www.waaglobal.org/
Jan 31 - Feb2: IBC is arranging a mobile entertainment event in San Francisco. Nokia is speaking as well as a host of Finnish startups such as CodeOnline and Riot Entertainment. Time to bring in Sweden as well next time? http://www.ibc-uk.com/cod/oinfo_lower.asp?pid=USC2615&pname=abstract
Feb 14-15: A very interesting mobile Internet event organized in Japan by IBC. Picofun, an Ericsson company is speaking. http://www.ibc-asia.com/wij2.htm
April 9-11: A conference on Mobile Video organized in Madrid by IBC. http://www.ibctelecoms.com/mobilevideo/?source=mobvid1
April 24-25: Pulver.com’s Wireless Internet Conference in San Francisco. http://pulver.com/wic01/
IOW LIBRARY - RECOMMENDED READING
* * *
This is a newsletter describing the non-confidential part of my work during the past week and how I see market evolution affecting Ericsson (as interpreted my me in my role working for the Next Generation Mobility unit of EUS, based in New York City and San Francisco). The report will be published twice a month. For subscriptions go to http://webacademy.ericsson.se/elists.
